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From 1st October 2018, all Accountants are required to comply with the Anti-Money Laundering

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Asia dominated in the list of the world’s busiest air routes in 2017, cementing the region’s status as the world’s fastest-growing travel market.

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The world financial system is as dangerously stretched today as it was at the peak of the last bubble but

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Notice to Clients:

Notice to clients:

From 1st October 2018, all Accountants are required to comply with the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009.

We are implementing the required client identification procedures and would appreciate your assistance by providing necessary proof of identification and proof of address when asked.

The World’s Busiest Air Routes

Asia dominated in the list of the world’s busiest air routes in 2017, cementing the region’s status as the world’s fastest-growing travel market.

Figures from flight data website OAG.com found that the world’s busiest air route was not New York to Los Angeles or London to Paris, but between the South Korean holiday island of Jeju and the country’s capital of Seoul.  Airlines flew the route 64,991 times during the year.

Australia is home to two of the world’s busiest routes, with Melbourne to Sydney recording 54,519 flights and Brisbane to Sydney 33,765 flights in 2017.

While all of the top 10 busiest routes were domestic, Hong Kong to Taipei topped the international list with 29,494 flights in 2017, followed by Kuala Lumpur to Singapore with 29,383 flights and Jakarta to Singapore with 26,872.

InTheBlack March 2018, pp11

 

World Finance now more dangerous than in 2008, warns central bank guru

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Davos, 22 January 2018, 12.53pm

The world financial system is as dangerously stretched today as it was at the peak of the last bubble but this time the authorities are caught in a ‘policy trap’ with few defences left, a veteran central banker has warned.

Nine years of emergency money has had a string of perverse effects and lured emerging markets into debt dependency, without addressing the structural causes of the global disorder.

“All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis, but the lesson has somehow been forgotten,” said William White, the Swiss-based head of the OECD’s review board and ex-chief economist for the Bank for International Settlements.

William White
William White is the ex-chief economist for the Bank for International Settlements

To continue reading copy this link and register for free:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/22/world-finance-now-dangerous-2008-warns-central-bank-guru/

 

Summer 2017/2018 Office Closedown

Our Office will be closing on Thursday 21st December at midday and reopen in the New Year at 8.30am Monday 8th January 2018

Wishing you all an enjoyable Summer!

All the best for a fun & profitable 2018!!

Nelson youth councillor sets sights on UN

1501805834182Robin is proud to be helping to sponsor Linda Ly on her way, in January 2018, to debate at a model United Nations at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, USA – see article below.

linda“A Nelson youth councillor could soon be swapping the local council chambers for a model United Nations.

Nelson College for Girls student Linda Ly, 17, is one of 20 students from Australasia selected for a tour to Ivy League universities next January.

As part of the tour, she’ll debate alongside 600 other young people in a model United Nations at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut.

The daughter of former refugees, Ly said she loves politics and has enjoyed her time on the youth council getting to know Nelson’s elected members.

Now she’s looking forward to meeting other youth from around the world who share her passion for politics and international relations.

“I’m most excited about meeting people and building connections, and being further educated about the United Nations,” Ly said.

“In my dream, somewhere down the line I’d like to possibly work there.”

She said the tour would equip her for studies at Victoria University next year, in law and international relations, and she hoped one day she might take her experiences back to Cambodia.

She said her parents came to Nelson 22 years ago as refugees, and as Ly had grown older she’d become more aware of the challenges Cambodia faces.

“There’s so much poverty and people living on the streets … I’d like to one day go out there and help, join a non-profit organisation.”

For now, Ly has her sights set on the upcoming trip to the United States, and said she was excited to be heading to Harvard as part of the tour – a dream she’d had since she was a little girl.

The tour will see her visit Harvard, Stanford, New York University, Princeton, Columbia, University of Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as well as the four-day model UN competition at Yale.

1501805834182a

But first she has to raise $8000 to get there. She said her parents were able to help her with some of the cost, but the rest she needs to pay for herself.

She works mornings and after school at her parents’ bakery, Loafers, but still had $7000 left outstanding to pay.

Ly said she hoped she could raise a contribution to that, as she also was faced with covering university costs next year.

Her long-term goal is a career in politics. She has already volunteered to help with the Green Party’s election campaign.

“I’m really passionate about the environment, poverty, climate change and mental health, and politics covers all of it … it’s great to talk about it with people.”

A Give-A-Little page has been set up for Linda’s fundraising efforts: https://givealittle.co.nz/cause/muntour2018linda

HANNAH BARTLETT

August 4 2017 “

Thalib Mowjood

“Today I got the wonderful news that I am to be awarded the Bryan Hudson Medal for the top combined mark in Australasia for the RACP adult medicine clinical and written examinations for 2016.  In receiving this honour, I am indebted to so many people who have helped me in my endeavours over the years.  There are too many of you to mention in one post, but I hope to thank you all in due course.  Much love to you all!”

Robin was a business mentor to Thalib while he attended Nelson Boys College

Office Closure & Summer Greetings

Our office will be closing on Wednesday 21st December at 5pm and reopen in the New Year at 8.30am Monday 9th January 2017

Wishing you all an enjoyable summer!

All the best for a fun and profitable 2017!

Doing Business

A record number of economies have adopted reforms to make “doing business” easier, according to the latest World Bank report. New Zealand, which has the fewest number of procedures and shortest time required to start a business, ranks highest this year, overtaking Singapore. It also ranks first for dealing with construction permits, registering property and providing access to credit. But for paying taxes it ranks 11th out of 190 countries. Businesses there take on average 152 hours a year preparing and paying taxes—the global average is 250 hours. Brazil ranks 123rd overall, and red tape makes it a taxpayers’ nightmare. Firms in the United Arab Emirates spend a mere 12 hours a year on their tax returns.

The Economist, October 29th 2016

Lessons from Brexit – Implications for Goverance and Risk

The UK vote to leave the European Union has created uncertainty and potential volatility around the world.  As the implications of the vote continue to unfold, businesses are being urged to consider the near and long-term effects on the risk environment, strategic direction, and potential workforce dislocation.

But it is not only this vote that should prompt boards and management to reconsider the issues that are going to impact their businesses and future success.  In many respects, this vote reflects a mix of more fundamental trends that are emerging globally and already impacting the regions and markets in which our companies operate.

Jean-Pierre Lehmann, founder of the Evian Group, recently said in an article in the South China Morning Post, “Brexit is a window into a future where ageing populations hang on to their privileges and global economic growth has failed to benefit all”.  He noted that:

  • The disintegration of the EU is now practically irreversible
  • Brexit illustrates the power of gerontocrats, evident in East Asia as well as Europe.  For China, a market particularly key to NZ, the effects of the one-child policy are significant and are now being more clearly understood.
  • The result reflects the rising tide of de-globalisation.

Populism is evident in many countries and is driven by both economic and social factors.  The US Presidential election race is also clearly demonstrating how some of these global issues are gaining significant traction across large parts of an electorate that traditionally have not been prominent or vocal.

Since the end of WWII, international trade has been the engine that has driven growth and economic prosperity, not always consistently, across both the developed world and portions of the third world.  However, the economic discontent that some Trump supporters reflect (and was clearly evident in the Brexit vote) highlights that the economic benefits flowing from globalisation are not being shared evenly and fairly across both countries and workforces.  As a result, we see Donald Trump’s threat to pull the US out of the WTO.  Even Hillary Clinton recognises that this issue is sufficiently major that she must now consider taking a stance.

What are the odds on TPP progressing now?  Other potential NZ agreements seeking better access to markets, might also become less likely.

These underlying global issues can have a significant impact on corporate NZ and should be on company strategic risk radars and taken into account during strategic planning.  The timing and ultimate nature of such events, which could turn out to have both positive and negative implications for corporate NZ, are very hard to estimate.

However, does this uncertainty mean that it is not worth committing resources to better understand and assess the potential opportunities and threats they represent?  In the UK and US these trends have already given rise to significant change that will likely impact company performance, both positively and negatively.

Formal risk management disciplines can help; they are the capabilities that are best suited to support smarter navigation of the uncertain waters ahead.  They provide a structured manner in which uncertainty (and we have plenty of that) can be considered in the context of a company’s strategic objectives.  Risk advisors, and wise heads that can support more complex planning and decision analysis needs, will be in high demand.

The ability to build resilience into an organisation, or position a business to seize potential opportunities, is becoming increasingly difficult due to the volatility and velocity of issues that impact performance.  It’s now evident that many of the key political and social events that make up the headlines reflect deep-seated issues that will be around for some time and need to be considered in our planning.  There is vocal support for any politician who promises these issues will be addressed.

What should companies be doing now?
The consequence of the UK exit from the EU could be significant and should be assessed.  Companies with strategic objectives that are dependent on trade with Europe, access to Europe via the UK and freedom of people movement are at greater risk.  Shareholders are likely to be already nervous.  Planning appropriate mitigation is imperative.  But where Brexit is concerned, there many be ample time with exit negotiations forecast to take many years.

Could the Brexit vote, the rise in populism supporting right-wing politicians and the rising tide of de-globalisation signal the likelihood of further EU fragmentation?  How will NZ companies respond to an environment where new free trade agreements are no longer possible?  Or existing agreements are under threat?

Good risk management is about anticipation issues and being proactive.  We are in an environment where investing in strengthening risk capabilities is not just prudent to do, it will be critical to do.  NZ businesses should be poised to move faster and better than competitors if they want to seize the opportunities that arise out of the uncertainty.  It will also be important to ensure any negative consequences are identified well in advance and appropriately planned for.  Competitive advantage is the reward.

The responsibility for being proactive does not only rest with executive management.  Directors carry clear responsibility for risk oversight, strategic effectiveness and performance.  They need to be ensuring that formal structured thinking is underway within the company to understand the implications of the issues that we are seeing globally.

Risk management though is not about planning; it is about taking better decisions now that strengthen an organisation for tomorrow.  It is a structured process to identify, assess, treat and monitor risk.  Just having a list of a dozen or so risks now will not add much value.  The global issues highlighted here will have an impact in the medium or longer term planning horizons for most companies.  However, the nature of the risk and a company’s exposure to it will change over time as more is learned about a risk and its potential impact on a business.  Initiatives considered now will likely have to be modified over time as additional clarity is gained; risk management is a continuous process.

With the uncertainty we face and the spectrum of significant global trends in play, risk management disciplines are an increasingly important input to the major decisions that companies will be making.

Rob Frost, Head of Business Risk, Marsh, boardroom, October/November 2016

Is the world prepared for the next economic downturn?

Eight years on from the global financial crisis, economists are wondering when the next downturn will arrive – and how debt-laden governments and their central banks can possibly fight it.

Are we bracing for a new storm?

 

It was an economic rescue effort like no other in world history. In the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, the major economies’ national governments and central banks took remarkable and concerted efforts to stop the Great Recession turning into another Great Depression.

Central banks slashed official interest rates to extraordinarily low levels, bought up debt to push rates down (quantitative easing) and even, in some cases, set negative rates – measures that previously were barely thinkable. Governments guaranteed large amounts of private debt and pushed up their spending to encourage economic activity.

Though debate still rages, those actions may well have succeeded in preventing the economic downturn turning into something far worse.

Almost eight years later, however, the recovery is still struggling to find traction; the World Bank recently downgraded its 2016 global growth forecast to just 2.4 per cent. Meanwhile, sluggish growth has strangled the flow of tax revenue, making it harder for many governments to wean themselves off deficits and debt.

In the US, public debt as a proportion of GDP is almost 105 per cent, compared with a figure of 120 per cent at the end of World War II. In the UK and France, debt-to-GDP is touching 100 per cent, and in Japan it has topped 250 per cent.

At the same time, central banks are grappling with the legacy of ultra-low interest rates and ballooning balance sheets. The official interest rates of most developed nations are close to (and in Japan’s case, below) zero, and total assets held (excluding the People’s Bank of China) have reached US$11.8 trillion.

It is little wonder that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently warned that if there is another severe global downturn, “the needs could exceed the collective resources available”.

And the risks are not small.

Refer to this link for the whole article:  https://intheblack.com/articles/2016/08/01/is-the-world-prepared-for-the-next-economic-downturn

intheblack magazine, August 2016, Adrian Rollins

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